an admired management consulting business for many many years now recently put out a paper that looks, by the trends, at trillion 8 dollar growth markets.
I found its full of facts you can pick up on the net. But it does have unique insight, plus the data is all in one place. Here’s the intro:
'Daily turmoil on a
global scale is giving business leaders and investors plenty of reasons to stay
hunkered down as they confront huge challenges in the here and now. Spreading
sovereign debt woes, volatile markets, unstable currencies, political gridlock and
stalled growth plague the big developed economies. Meanwhile, China, India and
other rapidly emerging economies are flexing their strength as they adjust to
the phenomenal growth that has been the biggest economic story of the past two
decades.
In the conventional
view, the current turbulence portends deep, enduring structural shifts that
will set the business agenda for the foreseeable future. We fully expect
macroeconomic shocks over the coming decade, with discontinuities that will
shape the options companies have to adapt and grow.
Yet behind the dire
headlines and day-to-day frictions of the marketplace, eight trillion-dollar
macro trends are at work in the global economy. The pursuit by businesses and
governments of the macro trends’ growth potential will touch many corners of
the globe.
Europe, Japan and the
US certainly face an extended period of economic turbulence and slow growth,
particularly in the first half of the decade. But as we will see, half of the
macro trends affect both emerging and advanced economies. Thus, while we
embrace the exciting opportunities in emerging markets, we also see
opportunities where many commentators see none right now—in the home markets of
many of the world’s leading businesses.
A shift in global growth. Although we will continue to see pockets of economic turbulence, look for the global economy to expand at a 3.6 percent annual rate over the longer term, resulting in world GDP swelling to $90 trillion by 2020—40 percent larger than it is today. The sources of economic growth will tilt increasingly toward emerging economies. Whereas the advanced economies currently generate two-thirds of global GDP, developing and emerging economies will contribute an outsized share of the growth in the future. By 2020, the advanced economies’ proportion of world GDP will drop to 58 percent, a sizable change over a relatively short period.
The growth of world population by 750
million, nearly all of it originating in developing and emerging economies,
will account for about one-quarter of the rise in GDP. Increased productivity
will generate the rest, as per capita GDP grows by 30 percent over that period.
But, while we expect the next few years to remain challenging in the West, we
can see a path for growth to accelerate in the latter half of the decade,
particularly if governments begin tackling their public and private debt
burdens. Indeed, our analysis anticipates that Europe and the US will
contribute an additional $8 trillion to global GDP by 2020.'
